More than half of UK homes will have to be fitted with heat pumps by 2040 to help keep country on track to meet its net zero emissions targets, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has told the government.
The climate change advisory body has published its advice for how the UK reaches its 7th carbon budget, which is due to run from 2038 to 2042 and stipulates that the UK emissions should fall by 87% of 1990 levels by 2040.
In the report, the CCC states that 52% of homes will have to be heated using a heat pump by 2040, up from just 1% now.
In order to meet this target, the CCC says the annual rate of heat pump installations in existing residential properties must rise from the level of 60,000 seen last year to nearly 450,000 by 2030. This figure should then increase again to around 1.5m by 2035.
The report also says that heat pumps are considered viable for most non-residential buildings, either as standalone systems or through district heat networks.
Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive of the CCC, said the take-up of low carbon technologies, such as heat pumps, is likely to follow a similar ‘S-curve’ pattern to that seen in consumer devices such as mobile phones, where initial uptake is slow before rapidly accelerating.
The CCC’s report says the anticipated rate of increase for heat pump deployment outlined in the report is in line with that seen in other European countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands.
Overall, the CCC’s latest report estimates that the total cost to the economy of achieving net zero by 2050 will be around 0.2% of UK GDP on average per annum until 2050, lower than the previous figures of 0.6% of GDP calculated in the 6th carbon budget five years ago.
In its response to the latest carbon budget advice, CIBSE said it shows that ‘rapid’ decarbonisation of the built environment is ‘essential’ to meeting net zero targets.
Dr Anastasia Mylona, CIBSE’s technical director said: ‘The path to net zero for the built environment is both challenging and transformative. It requires coordinated action from all stakeholders, particularly within the building services sector.’
