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An On the wire story
Official figures from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero show that the UK’s retrofit heat pump market lost momentum in the first quarter of 2026, with installations falling 18% from the previous quarter and 22% from the same period a year earlier.
The latest release records 10,693 hydronic heat pump installations of up to 45kW, a figure that still leaves the market well ahead of where it stood five years ago. Industry observers say the setback matters because it comes against a backdrop of growing policy support and a market that has been expected to scale more quickly.
Heat Pump Association UK chief executive Charlotte Lee said: ‘The closure of the Energy Company Obligation and slower deployment of heat pumps through the Warm Homes: Social Housing Fund are directly impacting the domestic retrofit market.’
However she said the figures did not show the whole picture. ‘HPA UK data shows heat pump sales for heating buildings in Q1 2026 remained static compared to Q4 2025 and grew 5% compared to Q1 2025. When including domestic hot water heat pumps in this figure, sales increased by 17% comparing Q1 2025 to Q1 2026,’ she said.
Air-to-water systems dominated the quarter, accounting for 10,625 installations, or 99% of the total. The data mainly covers retrofit systems installed with government support under the MCS framework, alongside self-funded units, and excludes larger systems above 45kW as well as most new-build properties. That means the statistics are best read as a measure of the domestic retrofit market rather than the whole heat pump sector.
Regional patterns remained familiar. The South East led the country with 18% of retrofit installations, followed by the South West on 14% and the East of England on 13%. London, although still a relatively small market, posted the sharpest five-year rise: 507 installations in the quarter, up 624% from the same period five years ago. Government data published at the end of 2025 and in March 2026 suggests the market has been moving unevenly but has nevertheless continued to build on the gains made in recent years.
Lee said: ‘To maintain confidence, support investment and ensure heat pumps remain accessible to all, Government must urgently clarify future support for low-income households and introduce the zero/low-interest consumer loans promised in the Warm Homes Plan.’
Sachin Vibhute, technical consultant and product training manager at LG Electronics, said the dip should be treated as a warning sign. He argued that while applications for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme are still rising, installations are not keeping pace, pointing to a possible bottleneck in delivery.
Their comments echoed wider market assessments that say installer capacity, skills shortages and the need for stable policy remain central to unlocking faster growth, even as the broader UK stock of installed heat pumps continues to rise.
• This On the wire article was created using Noahwire AI and reviewed by CIBSE Journal’s editorial team
Source reference: The Cooling Post [1]
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Source: Noah Wire Services
