The UK must prepare for temperatures beyond the long-term temperature goal set out in the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has warned.
In a letter to floods and water minister Emma Hardy, the chair of the statutory climate adviser’s adaptation committee, Baroness Brown, writes that it is ‘clear’ the UK is ‘not yet adapted for the changes in weather and climate that we are living with today, let alone those that are expected over coming decades’.
She says planning for global warming levels reaching 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050 – beyond the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C goal – should be a ‘minimum level’.
Additional warming beyond 2050 is currently expected and ‘extreme outcomes’ remain possible – for example, if the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions is ‘higher than anticipated’.
While ‘significant progress’ on the cost of low carbon technologies has reduced expectations of future warming, reaching 4°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century ‘cannot yet be ruled out’ and should be factored into adaptation planning, according to the letter.
‘Significant changes’ in the UK’s weather and climate at 2°C global warming includes the chances of an officially defined heatwave doubling from 40% each year in recent decades to close to 80%.
In addition, average peak rainfall across the UK is expected to rise by up to 10-15% on the wettest days, increasing peak river flows by up to 40% in some river catchments.
Sea level rise will also continue and accelerate, with 15–25cm of additional sea level rise expected by 2050 for UK coastal cities.
Strong adaptation objectives will be required to build up resilience to extreme temperatures, the CCC recommends.
