HEAT PUMPS | IEA RESEARCH SEMINAR POSITIONS OF POWER The government is aiming to increase annual heat pump installations from 30,000 to 800,000 by 2028. How this can be achieved was discussed at the IEAs annual research seminar last month. Molly Tooher-Rudd reports T he annual International Energy Agency (IEA) Heat Pump Research Seminar, hosted by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) started with a warning by Stephen Renz, chair of the IEA Heat Pumping Technologies (HPT) technology collaboration programme (TCP). If we follow current trends, we will not reach net zero in time. We need to take action to change this, he said. The necessary action, according to Renz, is the installation of 500MW of heat pumps every month until 2050. This would be necessary to enable the UK to cope with the expected tripling of electricity and cooling demand in the next 30 years, he said. The governments target is 800,000 heat pumps installed per year by 2028, a significant uplift on the 30,000 currently installed. Tara Deshpande, deputy director of the net zero buildings team at the Clean Heat directorate, BEIS, described the UK governments current policy on heat pumps. In the current political climate, she said, energy security is a big priority for the government, with consumer access to heating of prime importance. In discussing the decarbonisation of heat, Deshpande added that there would need to be a mix of heating technologies in the future because of the diverse needs of consumers and buildings, but that heat pumps would play a major role. She addressed the challenges of large-scale heat pump deployment, saying there was an evident need for more resilient supply chains, affordable pumps, and quicker and easier installations. Deshpande said that, by 2026, decisions would be expected to be made around the strategic role that hydrogen will play in providing heat, but even with a lot of hydrogen heat, the country would still need at least 600,000 heat pumps installed per year by 2028. There was a conflict among speakers about the suitability of hydrogen as a source for heating buildings. Bean Beanland, director of growth and external affairs at the Heat Pump Federation, expressed concerns about the powerful fossil fuel industry lobbying for hydrogen and the lack of understanding among some of our policy-makers. He is keen for off-gas buildings to move to heat pumps. We cannot allow the hydrogen debate to mask off-gas opportunities. There are currently four million houses in the UK that are off gas, said Bean, who urged that a programme to install heat pumps at these properties be mobilised. Octopus Hitting the target is a simulation-based assessment of the interventions required to meet UK government heat pump targets. Lucy Yu, chief executive at the Centre for Net Zero, founded by Octopus Energy, outlined the methodology and results. Just less than 25 000 households were simulated, with data gathered daily over several years. Key interventions modelled in the report were the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, the redistribution of policy costs across gas and electricity, and a boiler ban, starting on 1 January 2035. The study found that the government could meet its 600,000 installation annual target if it: grew the number of heat pump installers to as many as 30,000 by 2028; announced the upcoming ban as soon as possible, to send a clear signal of intent; and increased consumer www.cibsejournal.com December 2022 63 CIBSE Dec 2022 pp64-65 Heat pump BEIS/IEA event.indd 63 25/11/2022 16:41